wallstreetexaminer.com / by Brian Maher via The Daily Reckoning /
We asked this question one week after Trump was elected:
“What does history predict for the Trump presidency?”
The answer we furnished — based on over a century of data — was this:
A 100% chance of recession within his first year.
Not a 90% chance, that is. Not even a 99% chance. But a 100% chance of recession.
That answer came by way of a certain Raoul Pal. He used to captain one of the largest hedge funds in the world.
And to prove his case he called the unimpeachable witness of history to the stand…
Crunching 107 years worth of data, he showed the U.S. economy enters or is in a recession every time a two-term president vacates the throne:
Since 1910, the U.S. economy is either in recession or enters a recession within 12 months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new president.
Obama was a two-term president — if memory serves.
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